Indian markets are expected to open modestly lower on weak global cues but improving domestic economy will and expectation of positive outcome from Lok Sabha elections may cap the downside. vernight, US markets ended lower following Janet Yellen’s comments as investors expect bond purchases to end by September this year and interest rates to increase around April of 2015. US government bond prices fell sharply and the dollar rallied as markets interpreted Fed’s comments as hawkish. The S&P 500 fell. 6%, Nasdaq Composite was down 0.6% while Dow Jones Industrial plunged 0.7%.The US central bank, as expected, announced a further $10 billion reduction in its monthly asset purchases and revised the interest rate forecast to 1% from 0.75% for 2015. How the rupee will react to overnight gain in US dollar may also have influence in Indian stocks. Indian markets trade near new all-time highs, spurred by continued FII flows into local financial assets in the run up to the Lok Sabha polls. FIIs yesterday too purchased Rs 1070 crs in cash markets. On Wednesday, Nifty closed with marginal gain of 7 points at 6524. Market was range bound for most part of the day. Metal and FMCG stocks witnessed smart rally while Tech stocks declined. Technology stocks witnessed sharp decline after TCS indicated fourth quarter revenues and margins to be lower than third quarter. TCS slipped by 4% to close at Rs2040. Other tech stocks like Infosys, Tech Mahindra and HCL Tech declined by 1-2%. Metal stocks witnessed biggest gain today. Hindalco surged by 4% to close at Rs120. Others like Tata Steel, JSW Steel and SSLT gained by 2-4% each. The Nifty continues to consolidate in the 6500 to 6550 area after its sharp 350 points run from the 6200 area. Opening almost unchanged at 6530, the Nifty went up a tad to 6541 and spent the whole day meandering in the 6541 high and 6506 low area to close at 6524, up a modest 7 points for a nominal 0.11% gain. The Nifty continues in the broad 6430 to 6575 band and a breakout outside this range would propel it sharply in the direction of the breakout. Resistances are at 6580 and 6620. Supports are at 6490 and 6430 (also an important breakdown point from a Bearish cross pattern formed on the weekly chart).
RBI WATCH
RBI Governor Rajan to deliver an inaugural address at CAFRAL event. 0900 IST, Mumbai.
RBI Deputy Governor Chakrabarty to speak at conference organised by CIBIL. 0940 IST, Mumbai.
RBI Governor Rajan and Deputy Governor Patel to attend meeting with economists and analysts.
1100 IST,Mumbai.
POLITICAL DIARY
Rajnath Singh to announce BJP's alliance with DMDK, PMK, and IJK. 1200 IST, Chennai.
Congress briefing. 1400 IST, New Delhi.
Congress central election committee meeting, New Delhi.
3rd Round of Chai pe Charcha with Narendra Modi, Maharashtra.
DATA ALERT
US Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims. 1800 IST
US Weekly Export Sales. 1800 IST
US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index. 1915 IST
US Existing Home Sales in Feb. 1930 IST
US Leading Indicators in Feb. 1930 IST
DJ-BTMU US Business Barometer. 1930 IST
US EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report. 2000 IST
RBI COUNTER
DAILY LAF TENDERS: One set of 1-day reverse repo (at 7.00%) and 1-day repo (at 8.00%). Bids for repo tender may be submitted between 0930 IST and 1030 IST, and reverse repo between 1900 IST and 1930 IST.
MARKETS
*Call : Seen opening near RBI's MSF rate on banks' demand to meet daily funding needs amid tight liquidity 1 day call: 8.70-9.15% vs 9.00-9.05% Wed.
*Bonds : Prices seen moving with weak bias as Fed revises outlook for interest rate hike. Yield on 8.83%, 2 023 bond is seen in 8.77-8.86% vs 8.77% Wed.
*Rupee : Seen opening lower on broad dollar strength post FOMC outcome. Local shares to lend cues intr- aday. Range 60.80-61.40/$1 vs 60.95/$1 Wed.
*Stocks: Seen down on weak cues from overseas markets. Nifty range 6450-6570; Wednesday-end 6524.05, up 7.40 points.
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
* Pro-Russians seize Crimea naval base.
* Missing plane frustration boils over.
* Osborne sets out UK economic plans.
* Israel attacks Syrian army sites.
* Egyptian officers killed in gunfight.
* US seeks curbs on high-speed trading.
* Protesters occupy Taiwan parliament.
BUSINESS AND ECONOMY
INDIA-RELATED
* S&P says Indian cos' focus on debt cuts to aid credit profile.
* Source says PSU ETF anchor investor subscription 8.3 bln rupee.
* Headway in LNG export to Pakistan; price talks likely Mar 31.
* M&M tells analysts tractor sale to grow 8-10% in FY15.
* MTNL invites bids from banks for 5-bln-rupee short-term loan.
* IIFCL gets 26.95-bln-rupee bids for public issue of tax-free bonds.
* Nissan launches Alto rival Datsun Go hatchback at 312,270 rupees.
* Sun TV Network ties up with iTunes, YouTube for content sale.
* Shiv Sena says won't backstab BJP by fielding candidate vs Gadkari.
* Bombay Rayon declares lock-out at Bengaluru mill division.
* National People's Party Sangma says to contest from Tura.
* Crompton Greaves supplies 30,000 advanced meters to Paraguay grid.
* Source says heavy rains hit rabi crop over 168,000 ha in Karnataka.
* SEBI strips Financial Tech of 'fit & proper' tag.
WEEK AHEAD
Mar 21: RBI Deputy Governor Chakrabarty to speak at Conference on inclusion, growth and governance organised by SKOCH. 0900 IST, Delhi.
Mar 21: RBI Governor Rajan to attend convocation at IGIDR. 1100 IST, Mumbai.
Mar wk 3: Major port traffic in Apr-Feb, by Indian Ports Association.
Mar wk 3: Rail freight traffic for February, by rail ministry.
Mar wk 3: Crude, refinery output for February, from petroleum ministry.
Mar wk 3: GSM mobile subscribers data for February, by COAI.
Mar 26: Cabinet Committee on Investments Additional Secretary Swarup to be chief guest at 6th Annual India Roads Conference. 1000 IST, New Delhi.
Mar 31: Government finances for Apr-Feb, by CGA.
Mar 31: CPI for industrial workers for February, by Labour Bureau.
Mar 31: Core sector growth for February, by commerce ministry.
Apr 1: Manufacturing PMI for March, by HSBC.
Apr 1: RBI to detail first bi-monthly monetary policy review for 2014-15 (Apr-Mar). 1100 IST, Mumbai.
Apr wk 1: Foreign tourist arrivals in March, by tourism ministry.
Apr wk 1: Power generation for March, by Central Electricity Authority.
Apr 3: Services PMI for March, by HSBC.
Apr wk 2: Automobile sales data for March, by SIAM.
Apr wk 2: FDI equity inflow in February, by RBI.
Apr wk 2: Trade data for March, by commerce and industry ministry.
Apr 7: Lok Sabha election starts with first phase of voting for six seats in Assam and Tripura.
Apr 9: 2nd phase of Lok Sabha elections to cover seven parliamentary constituencies in the north-eastern states of Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, and Nagaland. By-election to one Assembly constituency in Mizoram also to be held.
Apr 10: Third phase of Lok Sabha elections to cover 92 seats across 10 states and four union territories.Voting for 70 Assembly seats in Odisha and by-election in Maharashtra will also be held.
Apr 11: Index of Industrial Production for February, by CSO.
Apr 12: Fourth phase of Lok Sabha polls for five seats in Assam, Sikkim, Tripura. Voting also for 32 Assembly seats in Sikkim.
Apr 14: CPI for Combined, Rural, and Urban for March, by CSO.
Apr 17: Phase five of Lok Sabha polling. To cover 122 seats across 13 states. Voting also for 77 Assembly seats in Odisha and by-elections to two Assembly constituencies in West Bengal.
Apr 24: Phase six of Lok Sabha election. To cover 117 parliamentary constituencies in 11 states and one Union Territory. By-election for one assembly seats each in Madhya Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.
Apr 30: Phase seven of Lok Sabha polls for 89 seats across seven states and two Union Territories. Also polling for 119 assembly seats in Andhra Pradesh and by-elections for seven assembly seats in Gujarat two in Uttar Pradesh and one each in Bihar and West Bengal.
May 7: Phase eight of Lok Sabha polls. To cover 64 seats in seven states. Also, polling for 175 Assembly seats in Andhra Pradesh, two in Uttar Pradesh, and one each in Bihar and West Bengal.
May 12: Phase nine of Lok Sabha polls. To cover 41 seats across three states. Also, by-election for two Assembly seats in West Bengal.
May 16: Vote-count for the Lok Sabha, Assembly elections as well as by-poll.
May 30: GDP estimate for Jan-Mar and 2013-14, by CSO.
Jun 30: Balance of payments for Jan-Mar, 2012-13, by RBI
view more
RBI WATCH
RBI Governor Rajan to deliver an inaugural address at CAFRAL event. 0900 IST, Mumbai.
RBI Deputy Governor Chakrabarty to speak at conference organised by CIBIL. 0940 IST, Mumbai.
RBI Governor Rajan and Deputy Governor Patel to attend meeting with economists and analysts.
1100 IST,Mumbai.
POLITICAL DIARY
Rajnath Singh to announce BJP's alliance with DMDK, PMK, and IJK. 1200 IST, Chennai.
Congress briefing. 1400 IST, New Delhi.
Congress central election committee meeting, New Delhi.
3rd Round of Chai pe Charcha with Narendra Modi, Maharashtra.
DATA ALERT
US Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims. 1800 IST
US Weekly Export Sales. 1800 IST
US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index. 1915 IST
US Existing Home Sales in Feb. 1930 IST
US Leading Indicators in Feb. 1930 IST
DJ-BTMU US Business Barometer. 1930 IST
US EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report. 2000 IST
RBI COUNTER
DAILY LAF TENDERS: One set of 1-day reverse repo (at 7.00%) and 1-day repo (at 8.00%). Bids for repo tender may be submitted between 0930 IST and 1030 IST, and reverse repo between 1900 IST and 1930 IST.
MARKETS
*Call : Seen opening near RBI's MSF rate on banks' demand to meet daily funding needs amid tight liquidity 1 day call: 8.70-9.15% vs 9.00-9.05% Wed.
*Bonds : Prices seen moving with weak bias as Fed revises outlook for interest rate hike. Yield on 8.83%, 2 023 bond is seen in 8.77-8.86% vs 8.77% Wed.
*Rupee : Seen opening lower on broad dollar strength post FOMC outcome. Local shares to lend cues intr- aday. Range 60.80-61.40/$1 vs 60.95/$1 Wed.
*Stocks: Seen down on weak cues from overseas markets. Nifty range 6450-6570; Wednesday-end 6524.05, up 7.40 points.
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
* Pro-Russians seize Crimea naval base.
* Missing plane frustration boils over.
* Osborne sets out UK economic plans.
* Israel attacks Syrian army sites.
* Egyptian officers killed in gunfight.
* US seeks curbs on high-speed trading.
* Protesters occupy Taiwan parliament.
BUSINESS AND ECONOMY
INDIA-RELATED
* S&P says Indian cos' focus on debt cuts to aid credit profile.
* Source says PSU ETF anchor investor subscription 8.3 bln rupee.
* Headway in LNG export to Pakistan; price talks likely Mar 31.
* M&M tells analysts tractor sale to grow 8-10% in FY15.
* MTNL invites bids from banks for 5-bln-rupee short-term loan.
* IIFCL gets 26.95-bln-rupee bids for public issue of tax-free bonds.
* Nissan launches Alto rival Datsun Go hatchback at 312,270 rupees.
* Sun TV Network ties up with iTunes, YouTube for content sale.
* Shiv Sena says won't backstab BJP by fielding candidate vs Gadkari.
* Bombay Rayon declares lock-out at Bengaluru mill division.
* National People's Party Sangma says to contest from Tura.
* Crompton Greaves supplies 30,000 advanced meters to Paraguay grid.
* Source says heavy rains hit rabi crop over 168,000 ha in Karnataka.
* SEBI strips Financial Tech of 'fit & proper' tag.
WEEK AHEAD
Mar 21: RBI Deputy Governor Chakrabarty to speak at Conference on inclusion, growth and governance organised by SKOCH. 0900 IST, Delhi.
Mar 21: RBI Governor Rajan to attend convocation at IGIDR. 1100 IST, Mumbai.
Mar wk 3: Major port traffic in Apr-Feb, by Indian Ports Association.
Mar wk 3: Rail freight traffic for February, by rail ministry.
Mar wk 3: Crude, refinery output for February, from petroleum ministry.
Mar wk 3: GSM mobile subscribers data for February, by COAI.
Mar 26: Cabinet Committee on Investments Additional Secretary Swarup to be chief guest at 6th Annual India Roads Conference. 1000 IST, New Delhi.
Mar 31: Government finances for Apr-Feb, by CGA.
Mar 31: CPI for industrial workers for February, by Labour Bureau.
Mar 31: Core sector growth for February, by commerce ministry.
Apr 1: Manufacturing PMI for March, by HSBC.
Apr 1: RBI to detail first bi-monthly monetary policy review for 2014-15 (Apr-Mar). 1100 IST, Mumbai.
Apr wk 1: Foreign tourist arrivals in March, by tourism ministry.
Apr wk 1: Power generation for March, by Central Electricity Authority.
Apr 3: Services PMI for March, by HSBC.
Apr wk 2: Automobile sales data for March, by SIAM.
Apr wk 2: FDI equity inflow in February, by RBI.
Apr wk 2: Trade data for March, by commerce and industry ministry.
Apr 7: Lok Sabha election starts with first phase of voting for six seats in Assam and Tripura.
Apr 9: 2nd phase of Lok Sabha elections to cover seven parliamentary constituencies in the north-eastern states of Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, and Nagaland. By-election to one Assembly constituency in Mizoram also to be held.
Apr 10: Third phase of Lok Sabha elections to cover 92 seats across 10 states and four union territories.Voting for 70 Assembly seats in Odisha and by-election in Maharashtra will also be held.
Apr 11: Index of Industrial Production for February, by CSO.
Apr 12: Fourth phase of Lok Sabha polls for five seats in Assam, Sikkim, Tripura. Voting also for 32 Assembly seats in Sikkim.
Apr 14: CPI for Combined, Rural, and Urban for March, by CSO.
Apr 17: Phase five of Lok Sabha polling. To cover 122 seats across 13 states. Voting also for 77 Assembly seats in Odisha and by-elections to two Assembly constituencies in West Bengal.
Apr 24: Phase six of Lok Sabha election. To cover 117 parliamentary constituencies in 11 states and one Union Territory. By-election for one assembly seats each in Madhya Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.
Apr 30: Phase seven of Lok Sabha polls for 89 seats across seven states and two Union Territories. Also polling for 119 assembly seats in Andhra Pradesh and by-elections for seven assembly seats in Gujarat two in Uttar Pradesh and one each in Bihar and West Bengal.
May 7: Phase eight of Lok Sabha polls. To cover 64 seats in seven states. Also, polling for 175 Assembly seats in Andhra Pradesh, two in Uttar Pradesh, and one each in Bihar and West Bengal.
May 12: Phase nine of Lok Sabha polls. To cover 41 seats across three states. Also, by-election for two Assembly seats in West Bengal.
May 16: Vote-count for the Lok Sabha, Assembly elections as well as by-poll.
May 30: GDP estimate for Jan-Mar and 2013-14, by CSO.
Jun 30: Balance of payments for Jan-Mar, 2012-13, by RBI
view more
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