Peak Deficit at 3.3% - lowest level since Jan-07

       

All India generation in February was up 10.4% YoY due to low base. During April- Feb’14 generation grew 6% YoY and capacity addition stood at 12 GW.

•       The all India PLF was flat YoY at 50%. Coal based PLF was down 200 bps YoY to 61%

•       The average coal inventory stood at 12 days in Feb-14 as against 9 days in Feb-13.

•       The coal base generation of IPP’s was up 30% YoY, however PLF at 56% was down 200 bps. Amongst the major IPP’s, JSW energy’s Ratnagiri TPS’ PLF was down ~20 pps YoY to 60% as merchant capacity continues to suffer. The Vijaynagar TPS continues to operate at robust PLF at 96%. Reliance Power’s Rosa TPS operated at PLF of 75%. Mundra UMPP PLF was down 500 bps YoY to 80% Adani Power’s 4.6 GW Mundra TPS reported PLF of 69% down 12 pps MoM as few units were under shut down. Also 1.98 GW Tirora TPS operated at sub-optimal PLF of 62%.

•       The PAF for NTPC’s coal based plants continues to be robust as for fourth consecutive month all the coal based reported PAF >95%. In February, NTPC’s coal based generation was up 7.5% YoY and coal based PLF stood at 90% (up 500 bps YoY) was highest in 21 months.

•       In Feb-14, energy demand grew 2% YoY but supply grew a robust at 6.6% leading to deficit at 3.8% down 400 bps YoY. The peak deficit in Feb stood at lowest level since January’07 at 3.3 % and was down 500 bps YoY.

•       RB coal index prices were down 8% MoM to USD 74 and Indonesian low grade coal (4200 Kcal) prices were down 1.5% MoM to USD 44.

•       In February, the average IEX prices were up 17.5% YoY and 11% MoM to Rs 3.34/kwh In Southern Region prices in S1 (AP and Karnataka) were up 10.5% YoY to Rs 5.16/kwh.

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